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The size, frequency, and geographic scope of severe wildfires are expanding across the globe, including in the Western United States. Recently burned steeplands have an increased likelihood of debris flows, which pose hazards to downstream communities. The conditions for postfire debris‐flow initiation are commonly expressed as rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds, which can be estimated given sufficient observational history. However, the spread of wildfire across diverse climates poses a challenge for accurate threshold prediction in areas with limited observations. Studies of mass‐movement processes in unburned areas indicate that thresholds vary with local climate, such that higher rainfall rates are required for initiation in climates characterized by frequent intense rainfall. Here, we use three independent methods to test whether initiation of postfire runoff‐generated debris flows across the Western United States varies similarly with climate. Through the compilation of observed thresholds at various fires, analysis of the spatial density of observed debris flows, and quantification of feature importance at different spatial scales, we show that postfire debris‐flow initiation thresholds vary systematically with short‐duration rainfall‐intensity climatology. The predictive power of climatological data sets that are readily available before a fire occurs offers a much‐needed tool for hazard management in regions that are facing increased wildfire activity, have sparse observational history, and/or have limited resources for field‐based hazard assessment. Furthermore, if the observed variation in thresholds reflects long‐term adjustment of the landscape to local climate, rapid shifts in rainfall intensity related to climate change will likely induce spatially variable shifts in postfire debris‐flow likelihood. 

This Review synthesizes progress and outlines a new framework for understanding how land surface hazards interact and propagate as sediment cascades across Earth’s surface, influenced by interactions among the atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and solid Earth. Recent research highlights a gap in understanding these interactions on human timescales, given rapid climatic change and urban expansion into hazard-prone zones. We review how surface processes such as coseismic landslides and post-fire debris flows form a complex sequence of events that exacerbate hazard susceptibility. Moreover, innovations in modeling, remote sensing, and critical zone science can offer new opportunities for quantifying cascading hazards. Looking forward, societal resilience can increase by transforming our understanding of cascading hazards through advances in integrating data into comprehensive models that link across Earth systems. 

Debris flows pose a serious threat to human life and infrastructure in downstream areas following wildfire. This underscores the necessity for having a hazard assessment framework in place that can be used to estimate the impacts of post-wildfire debris flows. Current hazard assessments in the western United States (USA) use empirical models to assess the volume of potential post-wildfire debris flows. Volume models provide information regarding the magnitude and potential downstream impacts of debris flows. In this study, we gathered post-wildfire debris-flow volume data from 54 watersheds across the states of Arizona (AZ) and New Mexico (NM), USA, and compared these data to the output of a widely used empirical post-wildfire debris-flow volume model. Results show that the volume model, which was developed using data from the Transverse Ranges of southern California (CA), tends to overestimate observed volumes from AZ and NM, sometimes by several orders of magnitude. This disparity may be explained by regional differences between southern CA and AZ and NM, including differences in sediment supply. However, we found a power- law relationship between debris-flow volume and watershed area that can be used to put first-order constraints on debris-flow volume in AZ and NM. 

Wildfire makes landscapes more vulnerable to debris flows by reducing soil infiltration capacity and decreasing vegetation cover. The extent to which fire affects debris-flow processes depends on the severity of the fire, the climatology of intense rainfall, the pre-fire plant community, and sediment supply, among other factors. As fire expands into new plant communities and geographic regions, there is a corresponding need to expand efforts to document fire-induced changes and their impacts on debris-flow processes. In recent years, several large wildfires have impacted portions of the Sonoran Desertscrub plant community in Arizona, USA, a plant community where fire has been historically infrequent. Following two of these fires, we monitored debris-flow activity at the watershed scale and quantified wildfire-driven changes in soil hydraulic properties using in-situ measurements with mini disk tension infiltrometers. Results indicate that rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in recently burned watersheds within the Sonoran Desertscrub plant community are substantially greater than those in nearby areas dominated by other plant communities, such as chaparral. Results provide insight into the impact of fire on debris-flow processes in a plant community where it is likely to be more impactful in the future and help expand existing post-fire debris flow databases into a plant community where there is a paucity of observations. 

Past research has shown that growth mindset and motivational beliefs have an important role in math and science career interest in adolescence. Drawing on situated expectancy-value theory (SEVT), this study extends these findings by investigating the role of parental motivational beliefs (e.g., expectancy beliefs, utility values) and parent growth mindset in math on adolescent career interest in math-intensive fields (e.g., mathematics, computer science, statistics, and engineering; MCSE) through adolescent motivational beliefs in math. Structural equation modeling was used to test the hypothesized model using data from 290 adolescents (201 girls, 69.3%;M_age= 15.20), who participate in informal STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) youth programs, and their parents (162 parents, 87.7% female) in the United Kingdom and the United States. As hypothesized, adolescent expectancy beliefs, utility values, and growth mindset in math had a significant direct effect on MCSE career interest. Further, there was a significant indirect effect of parental expectancy beliefs in math on MCSE career interest through adolescents’ expectancy beliefs. Similarly, there was a significant indirect effect from parental utility values in math to MCSE career interest through adolescents’ utility values. The findings suggest that parents’ math motivational beliefs play a critical role in adolescent math motivational beliefs and their career interest in math-intensive fields. 

Abstract. Debris flows regularly traverse bedrock channels that dissect steep landscapes, but our understanding of bedrock erosion by debris flows and their impact on steepland morphology is still rudimentary. Quantitative models of steep bedrock channel networks are based on geomorphic transport laws designed to represent erosion by water-dominated flows. To quantify the impact of debris flow erosion on steep channel network form, it is first necessary to develop methods to estimate spatial variations in bulk debris flow properties (e.g., flow depth, velocity) throughout the channel network that can be integrated into landscape evolution models. Here, we propose and evaluate two methods to estimate spatial variations in bulk debris flow properties along the length of a channel profile. We incorporate both methods into a model designed to simulate the evolution of longitudinal channel profiles that evolve in response to debris flow and fluvial processes. To explore this model framework, we propose a general family of debris flow erosion laws where erosion rate is a function of debris flow depth and channel slope. Model results indicate that erosion by debris flows can explain the occurrence of a scaling break in the slope–area curve at low-drainage areas and that upper-network channel morphology may be useful for inferring catchment-averaged erosion rates in quasi-steady landscapes. Validating specific forms of a debris flow incision law, however, would require more detailed model–data comparisons in specific landscapes where input parameters and channel morphometry can be better constrained. Results improve our ability to interpret topographic signals within steep channel networks and identify observational targets critical for constraining a debris flow incision law. 

Abstract Debris flows pose a significant hazard to communities in mountainous areas, and there is a continued need for methods to delineate hazard zones associated with debris-flow inundation. In certain situations, such as scenarios following wildfire, where there could be an abrupt increase in the likelihood and size of debris flows that necessitates a rapid hazard assessment, the computational demands of inundation models play a role in their utility. The inability to efficiently determine the downstream effects of anticipated debris-flow events remains a critical gap in our ability to understand, mitigate, and assess debris-flow hazards. To better understand the downstream effects of debris flows, we introduce a computationally efficient, reduced-complexity inundation model, which we refer to as the Progressive Debris-Flow routing and inundation model (ProDF). We calibrate ProDF against mapped inundation from five watersheds near Montecito, CA, that produced debris flows shortly after the 2017 Thomas Fire. ProDF reproduced 70% of mapped deposits across a 40 km 2 study area. While this study focuses on a series of post-wildfire debris flows, ProDF is not limited to simulating debris-flow inundation following wildfire and could be applied to any scenario where it is possible to estimate a debris-flow volume. However, given its ability to reproduce mapped debris-flow deposits downstream of the 2017 Thomas Fire burn scar, and the modest run time associated with a simulation over this 40 km 2 study area, results suggest ProDF may be particularly promising for post-wildfire hazard assessment applications. 

Abstract Little research has examined the associations between perceived inclusivity within informal science learning sites, youth program belonging and perceptions of program career preparation. This study explored relations between these factors at three timepoints (T1 = start of program, T2 = 3 months and T3 = 12 months after start). Participants were a diverse sample of 209 adolescents participating in STEM youth programs within informal science learning sites situated in the United States and United Kingdom (70% females: M age  = 15.27, SD age  = 1.60), with 53.1% British and 64.1% non-White. Path analysis revealed that only perceptions of inclusivity for own social identity group (i.e., gender, ethnicity) at T1 were associated with T2 STEM youth program belonging. There was a significant indirect effect of T1 perceptions of inclusivity for one’s own social identity groups on T3 perceptions of program career preparation via T2 program belonging. This study highlights that, over time, perceptions of inclusivity around youth’s own social identity groups (i.e., gender and ethnicity/culture) are related to a sense of youth program belonging, which in turn is later associated with perceptions of program career preparation. 

Abstract Gender stereotypes are harmful for girls’ enrollment and performance in science and mathematics. So far, less is known about children’s and adolescents’ stereotypes regarding technology and engineering. In the current study, participants’ (N = 1,206, girlsn = 623; 5–17-years-old,M = 8.63,SD = 2.81) gender stereotypes for each of the STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) domains were assessed along with the relation between these stereotypes and a peer selection task in a STEM context. Participants reported beliefs that boys are usually more skilled than are girls in the domains of engineering and technology; however, participants did not report gender differences in ability/performance in science and mathematics. Responses to the stereotype measures in favor of one’s in-group were greater for younger participants than older participants for both boys and girls. Perceptions that boys are usually better than girls at science were related to a greater likelihood of selecting a boy for help with a science question. These findings document the importance of domain specificity, even within STEM, in attempts to measure and challenge gender stereotypes in childhood and adolescence. 

Abstract Steep landscapes evolve largely by debris flows, in addition to fluvial and hillslope processes. Abundant field observations document that debris flows incise valley bottoms and transport substantial sediment volumes, yet their contributions to steepland morphology remain uncertain. This has, in turn, limited the development of debris‐flow incision rate formulations that produce morphology consistent with natural landscapes. In many landscapes, including the San Gabriel Mountains (SGM), California, steady‐state fluvial channel longitudinal profiles are concave‐up and exhibit a power‐law relationship between channel slope and drainage area. At low drainage areas, however, valley slopes become nearly constant. These topographic forms result in a characteristically curved slope‐area signature in log‐log space. Here, we use a one‐dimensional landform evolution model that incorporates debris‐flow erosion to reproduce the relationship between this curved slope‐area signature and erosion rate in the SGM. Topographic analysis indicates that the drainage area at which steepland valleys transition to fluvial channels correlates with measured erosion rates in the SGM, and our model results reproduce these relationships. Further, the model only produces realistic valley profiles when parameters that dictate the relationship between debris‐flow erosion, valley‐bottom slope, and debris‐flow depth are within a narrow range. This result helps place constraints on the mathematical form of a debris‐flow incision law. Finally, modeled fluvial incision outpaces debris‐flow erosion at drainage areas less than those at which valleys morphologically transition from near‐invariant slopes to concave profiles. This result emphasizes the critical role of debris‐flow incision for setting steepland form, even as fluvial incision becomes the dominant incisional process.